Prefacing this with the usual "these are my personal opinions, not to be taken as any present or future plans of any of the companies, blah blah".
Swing is a great, mature platform for writing cross platform desktop apps. It is also an evolutionary dead end, not because it can't be evolved, but because it has been deprioritized some time ago. I wrote about it back in 2008 [
https://www.pushing-pixels.org/2008/11/05/sun-setting-down-on-the-core-swing.html] and it's still true today. There have been very few, very minor improvements and bug fixes to Swing since then, but it's dead. Jetbrains has bet on Swing for pretty much their entire line of IDEs, and they've been trying to fix what the platform does not - hence the need for their own runtime [
https://confluence.jetbrains.com/display/JBR/JetBrains+Runtime]. On this end, I think they have also realized that they need something a bit better.
I personally see Compose for Desktop as Jetbrains' big bet on their own future for the next decade or so. It doesn't mean that in 2031 their entire product line has been rewritten to be in Compose for Desktop (CfD from now on). But I think this is the goal. The goal of moving away from a platform / UI toolkit that is dragging down their own productivity as a company, and using something that is more productive, but also - something where they can contribute to the overall direction and the feature set much more.
Hence (again, in my own personal opinion), the big investment in bringing Compose to the desktop OS world. Starting from Skiko and Skija as the underlying layers, but also JWM [
https://github.com/JetBrains/JWM] for window management and probably JCEF [
https://github.com/JetBrains/jcef] for browser integration.
In the short term, knowledge of the Swing world would be beneficial for those parts of CfD that are, perhaps, not as well developed. Good news on this part is that [IMO again] Jetbrains will be seeing the same gaps as you are seeing in your CfD apps, as they want their products to be worth enough for customers to part with their money for.
Now, on a slightly less positive note. Jetbrains is in the business of writing IDEs. These are complex pieces of desktop-grade apps, but they are still a rather narrow subset of all possible desktop apps that you can think of. I doubt that Jetbrains, for example, would want to be in a business of providing a fully functional pivot table, or a fully customizable and internationalized date picker, or a chart library. Or, for that matter, a 2D gaming engine that runs on top of Skija. All of these and more would be, IMO, left to interested developers to participate in bringing to the ecosystem.
The success of this new ecosystem will depend on both the vendors of the platform itself (core Compose and CfD), as well as on external developers building apps - and libraries - in CfD. In the short term, you can take some of the existing Swing libraries like JFreeChart, JIDE, etc - and embed them in CfD via the existing integration with ComposeWindow and SwingPanel. In the long term, it remains to be seen how the ecosystem will look like in 5-10 years. I personally plan to very much to be a part of that ecosystem with Aurora -
https://github.com/kirill-grouchnikov/aurora