Yeah, absolutely both paths are entirely possible, and I imagine that both will probably happen in the fullness of time. Probably some company (maybe Jetbrains, maybe someone else) will like using Compose for their mobile applications and will want to share code with web. Getting Compose drawing to Canvas wouldn't be terribly difficult, but it's probably more than a 1-person effort, so it will require a few people who want to share UI code to step up and help make the entire Compose ecosystem that much better. But it is certainly doable, and if anyone is interested in making it happen, let me know and I'm happy to help facilitate!
The DOM was chosen as a first target for a few reasons.
1. Firstly, it's easier to address the long tail and build something that is actually usable. There is SEO and a11y as mentioned, but there is also interoperability with existing code/libraries, and development tools (chrome devtools), and a whole host of other issues that would need to be relatively well polished to make a useful product. To be clear, these are achievable, but they introduce additional complexity at a time when we needed to prove the basics, and DOM allows us to sidestep all those issues.
2. Performance - Drawing to Canvas would require loading the CanvasKit binaries into the browser. This is totally doable, but comes with a certain performance cost. For a large SPA (single-page-application, like gmail) it might be acceptable. But for small webpages, downloading canvaskit would make the page loading measurably slower. This limits the places it would be applicable.
3. Motivation - Jetbrains had an existing web-based product built using the DOM, and was looking to use Compose, so the thing they were asking for was Compose targeting DOM. If instead they had an Android application and wanted to run it on Web, the calculus might have been different, and Canvas-based might have been implemented first.
That said, canvas-based-widgets also come with a bunch of advantages. The most notable of which is that widgets only need to be written once, and can be shared across Android+Desktop+Web+Whatever. This makes it easy to offer a consistent experience across platforms with a tiny fraction of the development costs.
Ultimately, I think both are super important and useful, but a canvas-based-widget has different use cases and different tradeoffs. If your team/company wants to help make the story complete, let me know and I'm happy to help facilitate!